The Ukraine War: Winner and Consequences — US or Russia?
Mohammad R Taheri, Former Faculty Member at Sistan and Balochestan University & Member of Iranian Association of West Asian Studies (Tehran)
Experts have proposed two main reasons for Russia’s attack on Ukraine: 1) The vision of returning the Soviet Union as a superpower. Proponents of this theory believe Russia needs to be strong; otherwise, it will be reduced to a lower status than it has today. More importantly, under such circumstances, the Western world will continue to dominate global politics. For this reason, Russia must avoid this by rebuilding itself as a powerful global state. 2) Russia’s fear and concern about Ukraine joining NATO. The Russian intellectual and political elites believe that if Ukraine joins NATO, it will be very dangerous for Russia, because it seriously threatens Russia’s national security.
However, the second reason was what caused the Russian attack on Ukraine. In this war, countries like Iran and China support Russia. The root of Iran’s support for Russia can be seen in the inappropriate behavior and weakness of American diplomacy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran. Although China’s support is indirect, it is significant. NATO’s expansion is not a good development for the Chinese. These three countries (Russia, Iran, China) are on the same front, and one of their most important goals is to reduce the US influence in the international arena. The more the West (led by the US) supports Ukraine, the stronger the alliance between Russia, China, and Iran will be. But, on the other hand, the Russian attack on Ukraine has strengthened NATO’s unity and prompted NATO to increase its defense and military budget and reconsider its military strength.
In an attempt to distract the US from interfering in the war of Ukraine or to push Americans back from Ukraine, Hamas’s attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people, might have been masterminded by Russians. Now, the Israel-Gaza war has overshadowed the Russian-Ukraine war. However, predicting how long the current situation will continue is difficult. Meanwhile, the US has tried to maintain its position in the Middle East through rich Arab states and Israel. The wealth of Arab states and Israel’s military and security technology have benefited the US in the Middle East; maintaining diplomatic relations between the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and Israel, is important for America.
It is not clear who will win these so-called proxy wars between the US and Russia. But, whoever wins, there will be consequences for the other, and these consequences will affect the international order.
If Russia wins the war against Ukraine, Western countries, especially the United States, will lose their current position in the world, as the international system’s status will change, allowing countries such as China, Russia, Iran, and their allies to impose their terms on the international order. This issue will have wide political and security consequences for the West. Moreover, according to some war experts, the involvement of the US and its allies in the war of attrition in Ukraine has made it clear to the Chinese that America is no longer the superpower it once was, and therefore it may provoke China to attack Taiwan. Attacking Taiwan is a much bigger military challenge for the US than Ukraine, because it not only engages the US on three fronts (Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan) but it may also openly pit the US against China. Ukraine is very important for Russia, and even if Russia foresees its defeat, it might use nuclear weapons. In this case, we do not know what the world may look like. In a nuclear war, winning or losing will be meaningless. Russia has already warned the West that if its sovereignty is threatened, it will use nuclear weapons.
There is also a possibility that under US leadership, the West may win the war in Ukraine. In this case, eventually, Russia may lose the war. My hypothesis is that while the powerful Western countries maintain their alliance with the US, it is not known to what extent and for how long Iran and China will back Russia. China has never publicly expressed its support for Russia. China is still seeking to expand its economic influence and power in the world and apparently does not intend to confront the US under the current circumstances. Since the US and other Western powers are strong allies of each other, and these countries are economically more powerful than Russia and have suffered fewer losses than Russia in the Ukraine war, they may win this war. Even if Russia can keep 20% of Ukraine, it has already suffered and will suffer a lot economically and militarily. Moreover, it should be noted that compared to Russia, Western powers are not internally fragile; the probability of internal fragility threatening Putin’s rule is higher in Russia than in the West for Western leaders. Western countries enjoy far more internal cohesion, and because of the relatively pluralistic nature of their political systems, their cohesion is not threatened. As a result, the destructive consequences of the war in Ukraine are higher for Russia, and in case of Russia’s defeat, the consequences for some of Russia’s allies may be grave.